Consumer Spending ‘Difficult to Read’ as June Retail Sales Remain Nearly Unchanged

2024.07.18

According to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau, retail sales saw modest growth in June despite an uneven pace of spending, according to the National Retail Federation.

Overall retail sales in June were unchanged seasonally adjusted month over month, according to the latest Census data, but were up 2.3 percent year over year. That compared with increases of 0.3 percent month over month and 2.6 percent year over year in May.

NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said that recent household spending habits have been, and remain, “difficult to read,” but that things are expected to grow as employment and income see gains.

“Spending has been uneven but remains in good condition notwithstanding the slower pace of payrolls, subdued consumer confidence and price deflation for retail goods,” Kleinhenz said. “Looking ahead, we expect consumer spending trends to continue even though they will likely be tempered by softening of employment and income growth. Still-high interest rates are making purchases on credit more expensive and have discouraged new borrowing.”

Core retail sales for the month of June – based on Census data but excluding auto dealers, gas stations and restaurants – were up slightly at 0.9 percent seasonally adjusted month over month and up 1.3 percent unadjusted year over year. For the first six months of the year, core retail sales were up 3.2 percent compared to last year – numbers that fall in line with the NRF’s forecast for 2024 retail sales to grow between 2.5 percent and 3.5 percent.